Title favourite
๐ช๐ธESPSpain29.0%
Group stage progress
3 / 72 matches
Active injury flags
0 affecting ratings
Model run
5,000 sims ยท v7
Title race
Probability of winning the World Cup โ Monte Carlo over the full remaining tournament
1๐ช๐ธESPSpain
29.0%0
2๐ฆ๐ทARGArgentina
24.9%0
3๐ซ๐ทFRAFrance
11.2%0
4๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟENGEngland
8.3%0
5๐ง๐ทBRABrazil
6.5%0
6๐ต๐นPORPortugal
6.4%0
7๐ฉ๐ชGERGermany
3.1%0
8๐ณ๐ฑNEDNetherlands
2.6%0
9๐จ๐ดCOLColombia
1.4%0
10๐ง๐ชBELBelgium
1.4%0
11๐บ๐พURUUruguay
1.1%0
12๐ฒ๐ฆMARMorocco
0.7%0
Injury watch
Each flag lowers the team's effective rating in every forecast
No active injury flags. Squad news arrives via POST /api/injuries.
Next matches
Win/draw/win probabilities and the model's most likely score
D๐บ๐ธUSAUnited Statesvs๐ต๐พPARParaguayJun 13, 01:00 UTC
47.9%draw 29.1%23.0%
B๐ถ๐ฆQATQatarvs๐จ๐ญSUISwitzerlandJun 13, 19:00 UTC
8.0%draw 16.2%75.8%
C๐ง๐ทBRABrazilvs๐ฒ๐ฆMARMoroccoJun 13, 22:00 UTC
56.9%draw 25.5%17.6%
C๐ญ๐นHAIHaitivs๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟSCOScotlandJun 14, 01:00 UTC
15.7%draw 22.8%61.5%
D๐ฆ๐บAUSAustraliavs๐น๐ทTURTรผrkiyeJun 14, 04:00 UTC
19.3%draw 25.3%55.4%
E๐ฉ๐ชGERGermanyvs๐จ๐ผCUWCuraรงaoJun 14, 17:00 UTC
92.0%draw 5.8%2.3%
Latest results
Each final score updates Elo ratings and re-runs the simulation
Road to the final
Probability of reaching each stage, top 16 teams by title odds
| Team | Exp. pts | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ช๐ธESPSpain | 7.7 | 99.6% | 89.7% | 69.7% | 54.6% | 39.1% | 29.0% |
| ๐ฆ๐ทARGArgentina | 7.3 | 98.9% | 87.6% | 77.9% | 59.8% | 35.9% | 24.9% |
| ๐ซ๐ทFRAFrance | 6.9 | 98.3% | 82.2% | 56.9% | 37.9% | 23.6% | 11.2% |
| ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟENGEngland | 6.9 | 98.1% | 75.2% | 40.8% | 25.3% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| ๐ง๐ทBRABrazil | 7.1 | 99.5% | 73.6% | 40.2% | 26.1% | 15.4% | 6.5% |
| ๐ต๐นPORPortugal | 6.7 | 97.7% | 76.0% | 53.9% | 32.6% | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| ๐ฉ๐ชGERGermany | 6.8 | 98.8% | 68.1% | 45.7% | 23.0% | 11.0% | 3.1% |
| ๐ณ๐ฑNEDNetherlands | 6.0 | 92.4% | 70.1% | 40.5% | 17.0% | 7.4% | 2.6% |
| ๐จ๐ดCOLColombia | 5.6 | 93.1% | 60.1% | 34.0% | 13.6% | 4.8% | 1.4% |
| ๐ง๐ชBELBelgium | 6.7 | 96.8% | 62.2% | 28.8% | 15.4% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| ๐บ๐พURUUruguay | 5.2 | 90.9% | 52.8% | 29.2% | 10.9% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| ๐ฒ๐ฆMARMorocco | 5.0 | 88.9% | 38.8% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| ๐ช๐จECUEcuador | 5.2 | 91.2% | 46.4% | 25.5% | 9.1% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| ๐ณ๐ดNORNorway | 5.0 | 88.5% | 46.8% | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| ๐ญ๐ทCROCroatia | 4.9 | 85.9% | 42.7% | 19.8% | 6.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| ๐ฒ๐ฝMEXMexico | 6.6 | 99.1% | 50.6% | 21.4% | 7.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |