WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group A · Matchday 1 · MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · Jun 12, 02:00 UTC

🇰🇷 South Korea21🇨🇿 Czechia

Full time. This result has been folded into both teams' Elo ratings — the probabilities below are the model's pre-match view.

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows KOR, columns CZE

0123450
8.8%
8.0%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.9%
13.6%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.8%
5.1%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.6%
4.1%
2.4%
0.9%
4
1.2%
1.4%
0.8%
5
11 13.6%10 9.9%00 8.8%21 8.8%01 8.0%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇰🇷KOR1821effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1795
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
+26.1
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in, Kim Min-jae.

🇨🇿CZE1784effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1810
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
-26.1
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Patrik Schick, Tomáš Souček, Antonín Barák.