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Group D · Matchday 1 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Jun 13, 01:00 UTC
🇺🇸 United Statesvs🇵🇾 Paraguay
47.9%draw 29.1%23.0%
Expected goals: USA 1.67 · PAR 0.96 · host advantage USA +55 Elo
| Source | USA win | Draw | PAR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 26.2% | 20.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 45.7% | 30.3% | 24.0% |
| Blend (published) | 47.9% | 29.1% | 23.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows USA, columns PAR
0123450
9.0%
6.6%
3.7%
1.2%
110.0%
13.9%
6.2%
2.0%
29.1%
8.7%
5.2%
1.7%
35.0%
4.9%
2.3%
0.9%
42.1%
2.0%
1.0%
50.7%
0.7%
1–1 13.9%1–0 10.0%2–0 9.1%0–0 9.0%2–1 8.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇺🇸USAUnited States1840effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christian Pulisic, Antonee Robinson, Weston McKennie.
🇵🇾PARParaguay1790effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1790
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Miguel Almirón, Julio Enciso, Gustavo Gómez.