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Group D · Matchday 1 · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area · Jun 14, 04:00 UTC
🇦🇺 Australiavs🇹🇷 Türkiye
19.3%draw 25.3%55.4%
Expected goals: AUS 0.95 · TUR 1.69
| Source | AUS win | Draw | TUR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 25.9% | 53.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 18.9% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Blend (published) | 19.3% | 25.3% | 55.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows AUS, columns TUR
0123450
7.9%
11.4%
10.5%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
15.6%
12.1%
10.0%
5.6%
2.4%
0.8%
23.1%
5.2%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1%
31.0%
1.6%
1.4%
0.8%
451–1 12.1%0–1 11.4%0–2 10.5%1–2 10.0%0–0 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇦🇺AUSAustralia1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jackson Irvine, Mathew Ryan, Riley McGree.
🇹🇷TURTürkiye1870effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1870
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız.