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Group B · Matchday 1 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · Jun 13, 19:00 UTC
🇶🇦 Qatarvs🇨🇭 Switzerland
8.0%draw 16.2%75.8%
Expected goals: QAT 0.75 · SUI 2.14
| Source | QAT win | Draw | SUI win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.1% | 20.2% | 68.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 6.7% | 14.4% | 78.8% |
| Blend (published) | 8.0% | 16.2% | 75.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows QAT, columns SUI
0123450
5.0%
12.3%
14.0%
10.0%
5.4%
2.3%
12.5%
7.7%
10.5%
7.5%
4.0%
1.7%
21.1%
2.4%
2.9%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
30.6%
0.7%
0.5%
450–2 14.0%0–1 12.3%1–2 10.5%0–3 10.0%1–1 7.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇶🇦QATQatar1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Akram Afif, Almoez Ali, Bassam Al-Rawi.
🇨🇭SUISwitzerland1860effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1860
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, Breel Embolo.