WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group B · Matchday 1 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · Jun 13, 19:00 UTC

🇶🇦 Qatarvs🇨🇭 Switzerland
8.0%draw 16.2%75.8%

Expected goals: QAT 0.75 · SUI 2.14

SourceQAT winDrawSUI win
Model11.1%20.2%68.8%
Market (Pinnacle)6.7%14.4%78.8%
Blend (published)8.0%16.2%75.8%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows QAT, columns SUI

0123450
5.0%
12.3%
14.0%
10.0%
5.4%
2.3%
1
2.5%
7.7%
10.5%
7.5%
4.0%
1.7%
2
1.1%
2.4%
2.9%
2.8%
1.5%
0.6%
3
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
4
5
02 14.0%01 12.3%12 10.5%03 10.0%11 7.7%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇶🇦QAT1660effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1660
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Akram Afif, Almoez Ali, Bassam Al-Rawi.

🇨🇭SUI1860effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1860
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Granit Xhaka, Manuel Akanji, Breel Embolo.