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Group C · Matchday 1 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 14, 01:00 UTC
🇭🇹 Haitivs🏴 Scotland
15.7%draw 22.8%61.5%
Expected goals: HAI 0.82 · SCO 1.95
| Source | HAI win | Draw | SCO win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.2% | 22.6% | 63.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 16.3% | 22.8% | 60.9% |
| Blend (published) | 15.7% | 22.8% | 61.5% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows HAI, columns SCO
0123450
7.1%
11.1%
11.6%
7.6%
3.7%
1.4%
14.8%
10.9%
9.5%
6.2%
3.0%
1.2%
22.3%
4.5%
4.0%
2.6%
1.2%
30.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.7%
450–2 11.6%0–1 11.1%1–1 10.9%1–2 9.5%0–3 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇭🇹HAIHaiti1590effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1590
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Danley Jean Jacques, Frantzdy Pierrot, Duckens Nazon.
🏴SCOScotland1755effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1755
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Scott McTominay, Andy Robertson, John McGinn.