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Group C · Matchday 1 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Jun 13, 22:00 UTC
🇧🇷 Brazilvs🇲🇦 Morocco
56.9%draw 25.5%17.6%
Expected goals: BRA 1.76 · MAR 0.91
| Source | BRA win | Draw | MAR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 25.1% | 18.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 57.1% | 25.6% | 17.3% |
| Blend (published) | 56.9% | 25.5% | 17.6% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows BRA, columns MAR
0123450
7.9%
5.2%
2.8%
0.8%
111.3%
12.2%
4.8%
1.5%
210.8%
9.8%
4.5%
1.3%
36.3%
5.8%
2.6%
0.8%
42.8%
2.5%
1.2%
51.0%
0.9%
1–1 12.2%1–0 11.3%2–0 10.8%2–1 9.8%0–0 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇧🇷BRABrazil2040effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2040
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Alisson.
🇲🇦MARMorocco1915effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1915
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Achraf Hakimi, Brahim Díaz, Yassine Bounou.