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Group B · Matchday 1 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 12, 19:00 UTC
🇨🇦 Canada1–1🇧🇦 Bosnia & Herzegovina
Full time. This result has been folded into both teams' Elo ratings — the probabilities below are the model's pre-match view.
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CAN, columns BIH
0123450
8.1%
6.0%
3.3%
1.1%
111.1%
12.4%
5.5%
1.8%
210.1%
9.7%
4.6%
1.5%
35.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.8%
42.4%
2.3%
1.1%
50.8%
0.8%
1–1 12.4%1–0 11.1%2–0 10.1%2–1 9.7%0–0 8.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇦CANCanada1806effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1810
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -4.3
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alphonso Davies, Jonathan David, Stephen Eustáquio.
🇧🇦BIHBosnia & Herzegovina1754effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1750
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +4.3
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Edin Džeko, Ermedin Demirović, Sead Kolašinac.