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Group E · Matchday 1 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 14, 17:00 UTC
🇩🇪 Germanyvs🇨🇼 Curaçao
92.0%draw 5.8%2.3%
Expected goals: GER 3.44 · CUW 0.47
| Source | GER win | Draw | CUW win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 90.5% | 7.4% | 2.1% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 92.6% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| Blend (published) | 92.0% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows GER, columns CUW
0123450
1.8%
0.7%
16.8%
2.8%
0.8%
212.2%
5.7%
1.0%
314.0%
6.5%
1.5%
412.0%
5.6%
1.3%
58.3%
3.9%
0.9%
3–0 14.0%2–0 12.2%4–0 12.0%5–0 8.3%1–0 6.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇩🇪GERGermany1980effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1980
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich.
🇨🇼CUWCuraçao1600effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1600
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Juninho Bacuna, Leandro Bacuna, Tahith Chong.