← All fixtures
Group A · Matchday 1 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Jun 11, 19:00 UTC
🇲🇽 Mexico2–0🇿🇦 South Africa
Full time. This result has been folded into both teams' Elo ratings — the probabilities below are the model's pre-match view.
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows MEX, columns RSA
0123450
5.1%
2.4%
1.0%
110.4%
7.8%
2.4%
0.5%
213.4%
8.9%
2.9%
0.6%
310.9%
7.2%
2.4%
0.5%
46.7%
4.4%
1.4%
53.3%
2.1%
0.7%
2–0 13.4%3–0 10.9%1–0 10.4%2–1 8.9%1–1 7.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇲🇽MEXMexico1872effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1850
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- +22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Santiago Giménez, Edson Álvarez, Luis Romo.
🇿🇦RSASouth Africa1678effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- -22.2
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ronwen Williams, Teboho Mokoena, Themba Zwane.