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Group L · Matchday 3 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 27, 21:00 UTC
🇭🇷 Croatiavs🇬🇭 Ghana
60.5%draw 23.6%15.9%
Expected goals: CRO 2.12 · GHA 0.87
| Source | CRO win | Draw | GHA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.4% | 21.1% | 13.5% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 58.4% | 24.7% | 16.9% |
| Blend (published) | 60.5% | 23.6% | 15.9% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CRO, columns GHA
0123450
6.5%
4.3%
2.2%
0.6%
19.2%
11.2%
4.7%
1.4%
210.5%
9.1%
4.8%
1.5%
37.4%
6.4%
2.8%
1.0%
43.9%
3.4%
1.5%
51.7%
1.4%
0.6%
1–1 11.2%2–0 10.5%1–0 9.2%2–1 9.1%3–0 7.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇭🇷CROCroatia1905effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1905
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Joško Gvardiol, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić.
🇬🇭GHAGhana1735effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1735
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo, Thomas Partey.