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Group L · Matchday 3 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 27, 21:00 UTC
🇵🇦 Panamavs🏴 England
9.2%draw 12.3%78.5%
Expected goals: PAN 0.51 · ENG 3.58
| Source | PAN win | Draw | ENG win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 2.2% | 7.0% | 90.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 12.3% | 14.5% | 73.2% |
| Blend (published) | 9.2% | 12.3% | 78.5% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows PAN, columns ENG
0123450
3.4%
5.0%
9.4%
11.2%
10.0%
7.1%
12.6%
5.9%
4.8%
5.7%
5.1%
3.7%
21.0%
3.4%
2.5%
1.5%
1.3%
0.9%
30.6%
1.0%
0.5%
450–3 11.2%0–4 10.0%0–2 9.4%0–5 7.1%1–1 5.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇵🇦PANPanama1720effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1720
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Michael Murillo, José Fajardo.
🏴ENGEngland2090effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2090
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka.