WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group L · Matchday 3 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 27, 21:00 UTC

🇵🇦 Panamavs🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
9.2%draw 12.3%78.5%

Expected goals: PAN 0.51 · ENG 3.58

SourcePAN winDrawENG win
Model2.2%7.0%90.8%
Market (Pinnacle)12.3%14.5%73.2%
Blend (published)9.2%12.3%78.5%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows PAN, columns ENG

0123450
3.4%
5.0%
9.4%
11.2%
10.0%
7.1%
1
2.6%
5.9%
4.8%
5.7%
5.1%
3.7%
2
1.0%
3.4%
2.5%
1.5%
1.3%
0.9%
3
0.6%
1.0%
0.5%
4
5
03 11.2%04 10.0%02 9.4%05 7.1%11 5.9%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇵🇦PAN1720effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1720
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Michael Murillo, José Fajardo.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿ENG2090effective
Pre-tournament Elo
2090
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka.