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Group L · Matchday 2 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 23, 23:00 UTC
🇵🇦 Panamavs🇭🇷 Croatia
14.0%draw 23.7%62.3%
Expected goals: PAN 0.83 · CRO 2.20
| Source | PAN win | Draw | CRO win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.1% | 20.0% | 67.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 14.8% | 25.3% | 60.0% |
| Blend (published) | 14.0% | 23.7% | 62.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows PAN, columns CRO
0123450
6.5%
9.1%
10.7%
7.9%
4.3%
1.9%
13.8%
11.3%
8.9%
6.6%
3.6%
1.6%
21.9%
4.2%
4.8%
2.7%
1.5%
0.7%
30.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
451–1 11.3%0–2 10.7%0–1 9.1%1–2 8.9%0–3 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇵🇦PANPanama1720effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1720
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Michael Murillo, José Fajardo.
🇭🇷CROCroatia1905effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1905
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Joško Gvardiol, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić.