WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group L · Matchday 2 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 23, 23:00 UTC

🇵🇦 Panamavs🇭🇷 Croatia
14.0%draw 23.7%62.3%

Expected goals: PAN 0.83 · CRO 2.20

SourcePAN winDrawCRO win
Model12.1%20.0%67.8%
Market (Pinnacle)14.8%25.3%60.0%
Blend (published)14.0%23.7%62.3%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows PAN, columns CRO

0123450
6.5%
9.1%
10.7%
7.9%
4.3%
1.9%
1
3.8%
11.3%
8.9%
6.6%
3.6%
1.6%
2
1.9%
4.2%
4.8%
2.7%
1.5%
0.7%
3
0.5%
1.2%
1.3%
1.0%
4
5
11 11.3%02 10.7%01 9.1%12 8.9%03 7.9%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇵🇦PAN1720effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1720
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Michael Murillo, José Fajardo.

🇭🇷CRO1905effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1905
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Joško Gvardiol, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić.