← All fixtures
Group L · Matchday 2 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Jun 23, 20:00 UTC
🏴 Englandvs🇬🇭 Ghana
77.0%draw 14.8%8.2%
Expected goals: ENG 3.44 · GHA 0.53
| Source | ENG win | Draw | GHA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 89.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 71.6% | 17.7% | 10.7% |
| Blend (published) | 77.0% | 14.8% | 8.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ENG, columns GHA
0123450
4.1%
2.4%
0.9%
15.4%
7.0%
3.0%
0.5%
29.6%
5.1%
3.0%
0.9%
311.1%
5.9%
1.6%
0.6%
49.5%
5.1%
1.4%
56.6%
3.5%
0.9%
3–0 11.1%2–0 9.6%4–0 9.5%1–1 7.0%5–0 6.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🏴ENGEngland2090effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2090
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka.
🇬🇭GHAGhana1735effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1735
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo, Thomas Partey.