WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group L · Matchday 1 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Jun 17, 23:00 UTC

🇬🇭 Ghanavs🇵🇦 Panama
42.5%draw 27.6%29.9%

Expected goals: GHA 1.41 · PAN 1.30

SourceGHA winDrawPAN win
Model38.6%27.7%33.7%
Market (Pinnacle)44.2%27.6%28.2%
Blend (published)42.5%27.6%29.9%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows GHA, columns PAN

0123450
7.6%
6.8%
5.0%
2.2%
0.7%
1
9.2%
13.2%
7.0%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.3%
9.5%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.4%
4.4%
2.9%
1.1%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.0%
5
11 13.2%21 9.5%10 9.2%00 7.6%20 7.3%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇬🇭GHA1735effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1735
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohammed Kudus, Antoine Semenyo, Thomas Partey.

🇵🇦PAN1720effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1720
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Adalberto Carrasquilla, Michael Murillo, José Fajardo.