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Group L · Matchday 1 · MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · Jun 17, 20:00 UTC
🏴 Englandvs🇭🇷 Croatia
59.4%draw 23.3%17.3%
Expected goals: ENG 2.20 · CRO 0.83
| Source | ENG win | Draw | CRO win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.8% | 20.0% | 12.1% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 55.8% | 24.7% | 19.5% |
| Blend (published) | 59.4% | 23.3% | 17.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ENG, columns CRO
0123450
6.4%
4.7%
2.4%
0.7%
18.6%
11.1%
5.2%
1.5%
210.2%
8.5%
4.7%
1.6%
37.5%
6.2%
2.6%
1.0%
44.1%
3.4%
1.4%
51.8%
1.5%
0.6%
1–1 11.1%2–0 10.2%1–0 8.6%2–1 8.5%3–0 7.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🏴ENGEngland2090effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2090
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Jude Bellingham, Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka.
🇭🇷CROCroatia1905effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1905
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Joško Gvardiol, Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić.