WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group K · Matchday 3 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Jun 27, 23:30 UTC

🇨🇩 DR Congovs🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
40.3%draw 28.1%31.6%

Expected goals: COD 1.41 · UZB 1.30

SourceCOD winDrawUZB win
Model38.6%27.7%33.7%
Market (Pinnacle)41.0%28.3%30.8%
Blend (published)40.3%28.1%31.6%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows COD, columns UZB

0123450
7.7%
7.2%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.7%
13.4%
7.5%
3.2%
1.1%
2
6.9%
9.0%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
3.2%
4.2%
2.7%
1.2%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
5
11 13.4%21 9.0%10 8.7%00 7.7%12 7.5%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇨🇩COD1715effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1715
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Yoane Wissa, Cédric Bakambu, Chancel Mbemba.

🇺🇿UZB1700effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1700
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Abdukodir Khusanov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Eldor Shomurodov.