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Group K · Matchday 3 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Jun 27, 23:30 UTC
🇨🇩 DR Congovs🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
40.3%draw 28.1%31.6%
Expected goals: COD 1.41 · UZB 1.30
| Source | COD win | Draw | UZB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 27.7% | 33.7% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 41.0% | 28.3% | 30.8% |
| Blend (published) | 40.3% | 28.1% | 31.6% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows COD, columns UZB
0123450
7.7%
7.2%
5.3%
2.3%
0.7%
18.7%
13.4%
7.5%
3.2%
1.1%
26.9%
9.0%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
33.2%
4.2%
2.7%
1.2%
41.1%
1.5%
1.0%
51–1 13.4%2–1 9.0%1–0 8.7%0–0 7.7%1–2 7.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇩CODDR Congo1715effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1715
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Yoane Wissa, Cédric Bakambu, Chancel Mbemba.
🇺🇿UZBUzbekistan1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Abdukodir Khusanov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Eldor Shomurodov.