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Group K · Matchday 3 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Jun 27, 23:30 UTC
🇨🇴 Colombiavs🇵🇹 Portugal
25.8%draw 27.8%46.4%
Expected goals: COL 1.07 · POR 1.72
| Source | COL win | Draw | POR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.7% | 25.7% | 51.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 27.1% | 28.7% | 44.2% |
| Blend (published) | 25.8% | 27.8% | 46.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows COL, columns POR
0123450
7.6%
8.7%
8.2%
4.7%
2.0%
0.7%
16.5%
13.2%
8.7%
5.0%
2.1%
0.7%
24.0%
6.9%
5.6%
2.7%
1.1%
31.4%
2.5%
2.1%
1.1%
40.7%
0.6%
51–1 13.2%1–2 8.7%0–1 8.7%0–2 8.2%0–0 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇴COLColombia1955effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1955
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez, Jhon Durán.
🇵🇹PORPortugal2045effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2045
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão.