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Group K · Matchday 2 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · Jun 24, 02:00 UTC
🇨🇴 Colombiavs🇨🇩 DR Congo
68.5%draw 20.2%11.4%
Expected goals: COL 2.54 · COD 0.72
| Source | COL win | Draw | COD win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.2% | 15.9% | 7.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 65.1% | 22.0% | 12.9% |
| Blend (published) | 68.5% | 20.2% | 11.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows COL, columns COD
0123450
5.5%
3.2%
1.4%
18.2%
9.6%
3.7%
0.9%
211.1%
8.0%
4.1%
1.1%
39.4%
6.8%
2.5%
0.8%
46.0%
4.3%
1.6%
53.0%
2.2%
0.8%
2–0 11.1%1–1 9.6%3–0 9.4%1–0 8.2%2–1 8.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇴COLColombia1955effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1955
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez, Jhon Durán.
🇨🇩CODDR Congo1715effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1715
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Yoane Wissa, Cédric Bakambu, Chancel Mbemba.