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Group K · Matchday 2 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Jun 23, 17:00 UTC
🇵🇹 Portugalvs🇺🇿 Uzbekistan
80.3%draw 12.9%6.8%
Expected goals: POR 3.35 · UZB 0.55
| Source | POR win | Draw | UZB win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 88.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 76.7% | 14.8% | 8.5% |
| Blend (published) | 80.3% | 12.9% | 6.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows POR, columns UZB
0123450
3.5%
2.0%
0.7%
15.9%
6.1%
2.5%
210.4%
5.7%
2.6%
0.8%
311.6%
6.4%
1.7%
0.5%
49.7%
5.3%
1.5%
56.5%
3.6%
1.0%
3–0 11.6%2–0 10.4%4–0 9.7%5–0 6.5%3–1 6.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇵🇹PORPortugal2045effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2045
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão.
🇺🇿UZBUzbekistan1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Abdukodir Khusanov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Eldor Shomurodov.