← All fixtures
Group K · Matchday 1 · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Jun 18, 02:00 UTC
🇺🇿 Uzbekistanvs🇨🇴 Colombia
9.4%draw 18.6%72.0%
Expected goals: UZB 0.69 · COL 2.65
| Source | UZB win | Draw | COL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.9% | 14.8% | 78.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 10.5% | 20.3% | 69.2% |
| Blend (published) | 9.4% | 18.6% | 72.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows UZB, columns COL
0123450
5.1%
8.1%
11.4%
10.1%
6.7%
3.5%
12.7%
8.9%
7.9%
7.0%
4.6%
2.4%
21.2%
3.1%
3.8%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
30.7%
0.9%
0.8%
450–2 11.4%0–3 10.1%1–1 8.9%0–1 8.1%1–2 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇺🇿UZBUzbekistan1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Abdukodir Khusanov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev, Eldor Shomurodov.
🇨🇴COLColombia1955effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1955
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Luis Díaz, James Rodríguez, Jhon Durán.