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Group K · Matchday 1 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Jun 17, 17:00 UTC
🇵🇹 Portugalvs🇨🇩 DR Congo
78.4%draw 14.6%7.0%
Expected goals: POR 3.22 · COD 0.57
| Source | POR win | Draw | COD win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 87.2% | 9.5% | 3.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 74.7% | 16.8% | 8.6% |
| Blend (published) | 78.4% | 14.6% | 7.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows POR, columns COD
0123450
4.0%
2.0%
0.8%
16.3%
6.9%
2.5%
210.6%
6.0%
2.9%
0.8%
311.4%
6.5%
1.8%
0.6%
49.2%
5.2%
1.5%
55.9%
3.4%
1.0%
3–0 11.4%2–0 10.6%4–0 9.2%1–1 6.9%3–1 6.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇵🇹PORPortugal2045effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2045
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Bruno Fernandes, Cristiano Ronaldo, Rafael Leão.
🇨🇩CODDR Congo1715effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1715
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Yoane Wissa, Cédric Bakambu, Chancel Mbemba.