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Group J · Matchday 3 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Jun 28, 02:00 UTC
🇩🇿 Algeriavs🇦🇹 Austria
25.2%draw 29.6%45.2%
Expected goals: ALG 1.13 · AUT 1.63
| Source | ALG win | Draw | AUT win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.4% | 26.5% | 48.1% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 25.1% | 30.9% | 44.0% |
| Blend (published) | 25.2% | 29.6% | 45.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ALG, columns AUT
0123450
8.1%
8.9%
7.9%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
16.2%
14.1%
8.9%
4.9%
2.0%
0.6%
24.0%
6.5%
6.0%
2.7%
1.1%
31.5%
2.4%
2.0%
1.2%
40.7%
0.6%
51–1 14.1%1–2 8.9%0–1 8.9%0–0 8.1%0–2 7.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇩🇿ALGAlgeria1790effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1790
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Riyad Mahrez, Amine Gouiri, Houssem Aouar.
🇦🇹AUTAustria1860effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1860
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christoph Baumgartner, David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer.