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Group J · Matchday 3 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Jun 28, 02:00 UTC
🇯🇴 Jordanvs🇦🇷 Argentina
5.0%draw 9.9%85.1%
Expected goals: JOR 0.36 · ARG 4.60
| Source | JOR win | Draw | ARG win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 0.5% | 2.8% | 96.7% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 6.9% | 13.0% | 80.1% |
| Blend (published) | 5.0% | 9.9% | 85.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows JOR, columns ARG
0123450
3.0%
2.9%
6.8%
10.5%
12.1%
11.1%
11.5%
4.7%
2.5%
3.8%
4.3%
4.0%
22.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.8%
0.7%
30.6%
450–4 12.1%0–5 11.1%0–3 10.5%0–6 8.5%0–2 6.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇯🇴JORJordan1650effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1650
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mousa Al-Taamari, Yazan Al-Naimat, Ali Olwan.
🇦🇷ARGArgentina2155effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2155
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández.