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Group J · Matchday 2 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Jun 22, 17:00 UTC
🇦🇷 Argentinavs🇦🇹 Austria
65.7%draw 21.1%13.2%
Expected goals: ARG 2.94 · AUT 0.62
| Source | ARG win | Draw | AUT win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 83.4% | 11.8% | 4.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 58.2% | 25.0% | 16.8% |
| Blend (published) | 65.7% | 21.1% | 13.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ARG, columns AUT
0123450
5.8%
3.8%
1.5%
16.3%
10.0%
4.5%
0.9%
29.7%
6.0%
4.3%
1.4%
39.5%
5.9%
1.8%
0.9%
47.0%
4.4%
1.4%
54.1%
2.6%
0.8%
1–1 10.0%2–0 9.7%3–0 9.5%4–0 7.0%1–0 6.3%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇦🇷ARGArgentina2155effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2155
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández.
🇦🇹AUTAustria1860effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1860
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christoph Baumgartner, David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer.