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Group J · Matchday 1 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 17, 04:00 UTC
🇦🇹 Austriavs🇯🇴 Jordan
71.9%draw 17.7%10.4%
Expected goals: AUT 2.35 · JOR 0.78
| Source | AUT win | Draw | JOR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.8% | 18.2% | 10.0% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 72.0% | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Blend (published) | 71.9% | 17.7% | 10.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows AUT, columns JOR
0123450
4.9%
2.9%
1.4%
19.6%
8.4%
3.2%
0.8%
212.1%
9.4%
3.6%
1.0%
39.5%
7.4%
2.9%
0.7%
45.6%
4.3%
1.7%
52.6%
2.0%
0.8%
2–0 12.1%1–0 9.6%3–0 9.5%2–1 9.4%1–1 8.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇦🇹AUTAustria1860effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1860
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christoph Baumgartner, David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer.
🇯🇴JORJordan1650effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1650
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mousa Al-Taamari, Yazan Al-Naimat, Ali Olwan.