WC26 AnalyticsMonsterra Capital · World Cup 2026
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Group J · Matchday 1 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 17, 04:00 UTC

🇦🇹 Austriavs🇯🇴 Jordan
71.9%draw 17.7%10.4%

Expected goals: AUT 2.35 · JOR 0.78

SourceAUT winDrawJOR win
Model71.8%18.2%10.0%
Market (Pinnacle)72.0%17.5%10.5%
Blend (published)71.9%17.7%10.4%

Scoreline probabilities

Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows AUT, columns JOR

0123450
4.9%
2.9%
1.4%
1
9.6%
8.4%
3.2%
0.8%
2
12.1%
9.4%
3.6%
1.0%
3
9.5%
7.4%
2.9%
0.7%
4
5.6%
4.3%
1.7%
5
2.6%
2.0%
0.8%
20 12.1%10 9.6%30 9.5%21 9.4%11 8.4%

Model factors

How each team's effective rating is built

🇦🇹AUT1860effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1860
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Christoph Baumgartner, David Alaba, Marcel Sabitzer.

🇯🇴JOR1650effective
Pre-tournament Elo
1650
In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
0.0
Injury penalty
0

No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mousa Al-Taamari, Yazan Al-Naimat, Ali Olwan.