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Group J · Matchday 1 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 17, 01:00 UTC
🇦🇷 Argentinavs🇩🇿 Algeria
74.9%draw 16.9%8.1%
Expected goals: ARG 3.53 · ALG 0.52
| Source | ARG win | Draw | ALG win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 90.4% | 7.3% | 2.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 68.3% | 21.1% | 10.6% |
| Blend (published) | 74.9% | 16.9% | 8.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ARG, columns ALG
0123450
4.7%
2.3%
0.8%
14.9%
8.1%
3.0%
0.5%
29.1%
4.7%
3.4%
0.9%
310.7%
5.6%
1.4%
0.7%
49.4%
4.9%
1.3%
56.7%
3.5%
0.9%
3–0 10.7%4–0 9.4%2–0 9.1%1–1 8.1%5–0 6.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇦🇷ARGArgentina2155effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2155
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lionel Messi, Julián Álvarez, Enzo Fernández.
🇩🇿ALGAlgeria1790effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1790
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Riyad Mahrez, Amine Gouiri, Houssem Aouar.