← All fixtures
Group I · Matchday 3 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Jun 26, 19:00 UTC
🇸🇳 Senegalvs🇮🇶 Iraq
67.9%draw 20.1%12.0%
Expected goals: SEN 2.17 · IRQ 0.84
| Source | SEN win | Draw | IRQ win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.0% | 20.4% | 12.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 68.3% | 19.9% | 11.8% |
| Blend (published) | 67.9% | 20.1% | 12.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SEN, columns IRQ
0123450
5.5%
3.3%
1.7%
110.0%
9.6%
3.6%
1.0%
211.7%
9.9%
4.1%
1.1%
38.5%
7.2%
3.0%
0.8%
44.6%
3.9%
1.6%
52.0%
1.7%
0.7%
2–0 11.7%1–0 10.0%2–1 9.9%1–1 9.6%3–0 8.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇸🇳SENSenegal1840effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Sadio Mané, Pape Matar Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly.
🇮🇶IRQIraq1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Aymen Hussein, Ali Al-Hamadi, Ibrahim Bayesh.