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Group I · Matchday 3 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Jun 26, 19:00 UTC
🇳🇴 Norwayvs🇫🇷 France
19.5%draw 24.6%55.9%
Expected goals: NOR 0.84 · FRA 2.17
| Source | NOR win | Draw | FRA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.6% | 20.4% | 67.0% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 22.5% | 26.4% | 51.1% |
| Blend (published) | 19.5% | 24.6% | 55.9% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NOR, columns FRA
0123450
6.8%
8.3%
9.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
15.3%
11.7%
8.1%
5.9%
3.2%
1.4%
22.7%
5.9%
5.0%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
30.8%
1.7%
1.8%
1.0%
451–1 11.7%0–2 9.6%0–1 8.3%1–2 8.1%0–3 7.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇴NORNorway1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa.
🇫🇷FRAFrance2080effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2080
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni, William Saliba.