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Group I · Matchday 2 · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · Jun 23, 00:00 UTC
🇳🇴 Norwayvs🇸🇳 Senegal
45.3%draw 26.7%28.0%
Expected goals: NOR 1.59 · SEN 1.16
| Source | NOR win | Draw | SEN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 26.8% | 26.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 44.8% | 26.7% | 28.5% |
| Blend (published) | 45.3% | 26.7% | 28.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NOR, columns SEN
0123450
7.4%
6.8%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
19.0%
12.7%
7.1%
2.8%
0.8%
27.9%
9.2%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
34.2%
4.8%
2.8%
1.1%
41.7%
1.9%
1.1%
50.5%
0.6%
1–1 12.7%2–1 9.1%1–0 9.0%2–0 7.9%0–0 7.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇴NORNorway1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa.
🇸🇳SENSenegal1840effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Sadio Mané, Pape Matar Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly.