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Group I · Matchday 2 · BC Place, Vancouver · Jun 22, 21:00 UTC
🇫🇷 Francevs🇮🇶 Iraq
87.5%draw 9.4%3.0%
Expected goals: FRA 4.08 · IRQ 0.45
| Source | FRA win | Draw | IRQ win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 94.2% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 84.7% | 11.5% | 3.8% |
| Blend (published) | 87.5% | 9.4% | 3.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows FRA, columns IRQ
0123450
2.6%
0.9%
14.0%
4.5%
1.2%
28.5%
3.8%
1.9%
311.6%
5.2%
1.2%
411.8%
5.3%
1.2%
59.7%
4.3%
1.0%
4–0 11.8%3–0 11.6%5–0 9.7%2–0 8.5%6–0 6.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇫🇷FRAFrance2080effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2080
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni, William Saliba.
🇮🇶IRQIraq1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Aymen Hussein, Ali Al-Hamadi, Ibrahim Bayesh.