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Group I · Matchday 1 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Jun 16, 22:00 UTC
🇮🇶 Iraqvs🇳🇴 Norway
7.0%draw 14.0%79.0%
Expected goals: IRQ 0.72 · NOR 2.54
| Source | IRQ win | Draw | NOR win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 7.8% | 15.9% | 76.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 6.6% | 13.1% | 80.2% |
| Blend (published) | 7.0% | 14.0% | 79.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows IRQ, columns NOR
0123450
3.8%
9.5%
12.8%
10.9%
6.9%
3.5%
12.0%
6.6%
9.3%
7.8%
5.0%
2.5%
20.9%
2.3%
2.8%
2.8%
1.8%
0.9%
30.5%
0.7%
0.6%
450–2 12.8%0–3 10.9%0–1 9.5%1–2 9.3%1–3 7.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇮🇶IRQIraq1660effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1660
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Aymen Hussein, Ali Al-Hamadi, Ibrahim Bayesh.
🇳🇴NORNorway1900effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1900
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Erling Haaland, Martin Ødegaard, Antonio Nusa.