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Group I · Matchday 1 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Jun 16, 19:00 UTC
🇫🇷 Francevs🇸🇳 Senegal
68.5%draw 19.9%11.6%
Expected goals: FRA 2.54 · SEN 0.72
| Source | FRA win | Draw | SEN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.2% | 15.9% | 7.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 65.2% | 21.6% | 13.2% |
| Blend (published) | 68.5% | 19.9% | 11.6% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows FRA, columns SEN
0123450
5.5%
3.2%
1.5%
18.2%
9.5%
3.7%
0.9%
211.1%
8.0%
4.0%
1.1%
39.4%
6.8%
2.5%
0.8%
46.0%
4.3%
1.6%
53.0%
2.2%
0.8%
2–0 11.1%1–1 9.5%3–0 9.4%1–0 8.2%2–1 8.0%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇫🇷FRAFrance2080effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2080
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni, William Saliba.
🇸🇳SENSenegal1840effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1840
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Sadio Mané, Pape Matar Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly.