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Group H · Matchday 3 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Jun 27, 00:00 UTC
🇨🇻 Cape Verdevs🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
37.2%draw 25.5%37.3%
Expected goals: CPV 1.10 · KSA 1.67
| Source | CPV win | Draw | KSA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.1% | 26.1% | 49.8% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 42.9% | 25.2% | 31.9% |
| Blend (published) | 37.2% | 25.5% | 37.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows CPV, columns KSA
0123450
7.0%
7.2%
6.6%
3.7%
1.5%
0.5%
19.2%
12.1%
7.2%
4.0%
1.7%
0.6%
25.8%
9.8%
5.2%
2.2%
0.9%
32.1%
3.6%
3.0%
1.1%
40.6%
1.0%
0.8%
51–1 12.1%2–1 9.8%1–0 9.2%1–2 7.2%0–1 7.2%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇨🇻CPVCape Verde1620effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1620
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ryan Mendes, Jamiro Monteiro, Bebé.
🇸🇦KSASaudi Arabia1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Salem Al-Dawsari, Firas Al-Buraikan, Saud Abdulhamid.