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Group H · Matchday 3 · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara · Jun 27, 00:00 UTC
🇺🇾 Uruguayvs🇪🇸 Spain
14.5%draw 21.1%64.4%
Expected goals: URU 0.68 · ESP 2.72
| Source | URU win | Draw | ESP win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.3% | 14.0% | 79.7% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 18.1% | 24.1% | 57.8% |
| Blend (published) | 14.5% | 21.1% | 64.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows URU, columns ESP
0123450
5.8%
7.0%
10.1%
9.1%
6.2%
3.4%
14.1%
10.0%
6.8%
6.2%
4.2%
2.3%
21.8%
4.8%
4.3%
2.1%
1.4%
0.8%
31.1%
1.5%
0.9%
450–2 10.0%1–1 10.0%0–3 9.1%0–1 7.0%1–2 6.8%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇺🇾URUUruguay1925effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1925
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez, Ronald Araújo.
🇪🇸ESPSpain2190effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2190
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri.