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Group H · Matchday 2 · Gillette Stadium, Boston · Jun 21, 22:00 UTC
🇺🇾 Uruguayvs🇨🇻 Cape Verde
71.8%draw 18.0%10.2%
Expected goals: URU 3.02 · CPV 0.61
| Source | URU win | Draw | CPV win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.5% | 11.1% | 4.3% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 66.3% | 21.0% | 12.7% |
| Blend (published) | 71.8% | 18.0% | 10.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows URU, columns CPV
0123450
5.0%
2.9%
1.2%
16.5%
8.6%
3.5%
0.7%
210.3%
6.3%
3.6%
1.1%
310.4%
6.3%
1.9%
0.7%
47.8%
4.8%
1.5%
54.7%
2.9%
0.9%
3–0 10.4%2–0 10.3%1–1 8.6%4–0 7.8%1–0 6.5%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇺🇾URUUruguay1925effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1925
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez, Ronald Araújo.
🇨🇻CPVCape Verde1620effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1620
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ryan Mendes, Jamiro Monteiro, Bebé.