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Group H · Matchday 2 · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area · Jun 21, 16:00 UTC
🇪🇸 Spainvs🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia
89.6%draw 7.2%3.2%
Expected goals: ESP 4.60 · KSA 0.37
| Source | ESP win | Draw | KSA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 96.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 86.6% | 9.1% | 4.3% |
| Blend (published) | 89.6% | 7.2% | 3.2% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ESP, columns KSA
0123450
2.1%
0.9%
13.0%
3.5%
1.3%
27.1%
2.7%
1.4%
310.9%
4.1%
0.8%
412.5%
4.7%
0.9%
511.5%
4.3%
0.8%
4–0 12.5%5–0 11.5%3–0 10.9%6–0 8.8%2–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇪🇸ESPSpain2190effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2190
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri.
🇸🇦KSASaudi Arabia1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Salem Al-Dawsari, Firas Al-Buraikan, Saud Abdulhamid.