← All fixtures
Group H · Matchday 1 · NRG Stadium, Houston · Jun 15, 22:00 UTC
🇸🇦 Saudi Arabiavs🇺🇾 Uruguay
10.9%draw 20.0%69.1%
Expected goals: KSA 0.75 · URU 2.45
| Source | KSA win | Draw | URU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.9% | 17.1% | 74.1% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 11.8% | 21.3% | 66.9% |
| Blend (published) | 10.9% | 20.0% | 69.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows KSA, columns URU
0123450
5.5%
8.8%
11.4%
9.3%
5.7%
2.8%
13.0%
9.5%
8.6%
7.0%
4.3%
2.1%
21.4%
3.5%
4.1%
2.6%
1.6%
0.8%
30.9%
1.1%
0.8%
450–2 11.4%1–1 9.5%0–3 9.3%0–1 8.8%1–2 8.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇸🇦KSASaudi Arabia1700effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1700
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Salem Al-Dawsari, Firas Al-Buraikan, Saud Abdulhamid.
🇺🇾URUUruguay1925effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1925
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Federico Valverde, Darwin Núñez, Ronald Araújo.