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Group H · Matchday 1 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Jun 15, 16:00 UTC
🇪🇸 Spainvs🇨🇻 Cape Verde
91.0%draw 6.5%2.5%
Expected goals: ESP 4.60 · CPV 0.30
| Source | ESP win | Draw | CPV win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 97.1% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 88.5% | 8.2% | 3.4% |
| Blend (published) | 91.0% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows ESP, columns CPV
0123450
2.3%
0.9%
13.3%
3.1%
1.0%
27.7%
2.3%
1.0%
311.8%
3.6%
0.5%
413.6%
4.1%
0.6%
512.5%
3.8%
0.6%
4–0 13.6%5–0 12.5%3–0 11.8%6–0 9.6%2–0 7.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇪🇸ESPSpain2190effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2190
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Rodri.
🇨🇻CPVCape Verde1620effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1620
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Ryan Mendes, Jamiro Monteiro, Bebé.