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Group G · Matchday 3 · BC Place, Vancouver · Jun 27, 03:00 UTC
🇪🇬 Egyptvs🇮🇷 Iran
38.5%draw 30.1%31.3%
Expected goals: EGY 1.22 · IRN 1.50
| Source | EGY win | Draw | IRN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 27.3% | 42.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 42.2% | 31.4% | 26.4% |
| Blend (published) | 38.5% | 30.1% | 31.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows EGY, columns IRN
0123450
8.3%
6.5%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
19.1%
14.3%
6.6%
3.3%
1.3%
26.3%
9.5%
6.1%
2.0%
0.8%
32.6%
3.9%
2.9%
1.2%
40.8%
1.2%
0.9%
51–1 14.3%2–1 9.5%1–0 9.1%0–0 8.3%1–2 6.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇪🇬EGYEgypt1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Elneny.
🇮🇷IRNIran1800effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1800
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mehdi Taremi, Sardar Azmoun, Alireza Jahanbakhsh.