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Group G · Matchday 3 · BMO Field, Toronto · Jun 27, 03:00 UTC
🇳🇿 New Zealandvs🇧🇪 Belgium
8.2%draw 15.0%76.8%
Expected goals: NZL 0.62 · BEL 2.94
| Source | NZL win | Draw | BEL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 4.8% | 11.8% | 83.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 9.7% | 16.3% | 74.0% |
| Blend (published) | 8.2% | 15.0% | 76.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NZL, columns BEL
0123450
4.1%
7.3%
11.3%
11.1%
8.1%
4.8%
12.3%
7.1%
7.1%
6.9%
5.1%
3.0%
21.0%
2.8%
3.0%
2.2%
1.6%
0.9%
30.6%
0.9%
0.6%
450–2 11.3%0–3 11.1%0–4 8.1%0–1 7.3%1–1 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇿NZLNew Zealand1640effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1640
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Chris Wood, Liberato Cacace, Marko Stamenić.
🇧🇪BELBelgium1935effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1935
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku, Romelu Lukaku.