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Group G · Matchday 2 · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · Jun 22, 01:00 UTC
🇳🇿 New Zealandvs🇪🇬 Egypt
20.8%draw 24.4%54.8%
Expected goals: NZL 0.99 · EGY 1.86
| Source | NZL win | Draw | EGY win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.9% | 24.2% | 56.9% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 21.6% | 24.5% | 53.9% |
| Blend (published) | 20.8% | 24.4% | 54.8% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NZL, columns EGY
0123450
6.7%
9.6%
9.7%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
15.4%
11.6%
9.6%
5.9%
2.7%
1.0%
23.1%
5.8%
4.9%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
31.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.0%
451–1 11.6%0–2 9.7%0–1 9.6%1–2 9.6%0–0 6.7%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇿NZLNew Zealand1640effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1640
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Chris Wood, Liberato Cacace, Marko Stamenić.
🇪🇬EGYEgypt1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Elneny.