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Group G · Matchday 2 · Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · Jun 21, 19:00 UTC
🇧🇪 Belgiumvs🇮🇷 Iran
65.0%draw 21.2%13.7%
Expected goals: BEL 1.93 · IRN 0.95
| Source | BEL win | Draw | IRN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.5% | 23.3% | 17.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 67.4% | 20.3% | 12.2% |
| Blend (published) | 65.0% | 21.2% | 13.7% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows BEL, columns IRN
0123450
5.8%
3.6%
2.0%
0.6%
110.9%
10.1%
3.9%
1.2%
211.4%
10.9%
4.3%
1.2%
37.4%
7.0%
3.3%
0.9%
43.6%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
51.4%
1.3%
0.6%
2–0 11.4%1–0 10.9%2–1 10.9%1–1 10.1%3–0 7.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇧🇪BELBelgium1935effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1935
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku, Romelu Lukaku.
🇮🇷IRNIran1800effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1800
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mehdi Taremi, Sardar Azmoun, Alireza Jahanbakhsh.