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Group G · Matchday 1 · AT&T Stadium, Dallas · Jun 16, 01:00 UTC
🇮🇷 Iranvs🇳🇿 New Zealand
55.8%draw 25.7%18.5%
Expected goals: IRN 2.06 · NZL 0.89
| Source | IRN win | Draw | NZL win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.7% | 21.8% | 14.5% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 52.5% | 27.3% | 20.2% |
| Blend (published) | 55.8% | 25.7% | 18.5% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows IRN, columns NZL
0123450
7.1%
4.9%
2.6%
0.8%
18.8%
12.2%
5.4%
1.6%
29.7%
8.7%
5.2%
1.7%
36.7%
6.0%
2.7%
1.1%
43.4%
3.1%
1.4%
51.4%
1.3%
0.6%
1–1 12.2%2–0 9.7%1–0 8.8%2–1 8.7%0–0 7.1%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇮🇷IRNIran1800effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1800
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mehdi Taremi, Sardar Azmoun, Alireza Jahanbakhsh.
🇳🇿NZLNew Zealand1640effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1640
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Chris Wood, Liberato Cacace, Marko Stamenić.