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Group G · Matchday 1 · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · Jun 15, 19:00 UTC
🇧🇪 Belgiumvs🇪🇬 Egypt
61.9%draw 22.8%15.4%
Expected goals: BEL 2.15 · EGY 0.86
| Source | BEL win | Draw | EGY win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.2% | 20.7% | 13.1% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 60.0% | 23.6% | 16.4% |
| Blend (published) | 61.9% | 22.8% | 15.4% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows BEL, columns EGY
0123450
6.3%
4.2%
2.1%
0.6%
19.3%
10.8%
4.6%
1.3%
210.7%
9.2%
4.6%
1.4%
37.6%
6.5%
2.8%
0.9%
44.1%
3.5%
1.5%
51.8%
1.5%
0.6%
1–1 10.8%2–0 10.7%1–0 9.3%2–1 9.2%3–0 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇧🇪BELBelgium1935effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1935
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Kevin De Bruyne, Jérémy Doku, Romelu Lukaku.
🇪🇬EGYEgypt1760effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1760
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush, Mohamed Elneny.