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Group F · Matchday 3 · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay Area · Jun 25, 23:00 UTC
🇯🇵 Japanvs🇸🇪 Sweden
45.8%draw 27.4%26.7%
Expected goals: JPN 1.61 · SWE 1.14
| Source | JPN win | Draw | SWE win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.2% | 26.6% | 26.2% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 45.2% | 27.8% | 27.0% |
| Blend (published) | 45.8% | 27.4% | 26.7% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows JPN, columns SWE
0123450
7.6%
6.5%
4.3%
1.6%
19.1%
13.1%
6.9%
2.6%
0.7%
28.0%
9.2%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
34.3%
4.9%
2.8%
1.1%
41.7%
2.0%
1.1%
50.6%
0.6%
1–1 13.1%2–1 9.2%1–0 9.1%2–0 8.0%0–0 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇯🇵JPNJapan1885effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1885
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma, Wataru Endo.
🇸🇪SWESweden1820effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1820
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, Dejan Kulusevski.