← All fixtures
Group F · Matchday 3 · Lumen Field, Seattle · Jun 25, 23:00 UTC
🇹🇳 Tunisiavs🇳🇱 Netherlands
12.2%draw 19.6%68.1%
Expected goals: TUN 0.68 · NED 2.72
| Source | TUN win | Draw | NED win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 6.3% | 14.0% | 79.7% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 14.8% | 22.0% | 63.2% |
| Blend (published) | 12.2% | 19.6% | 68.1% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows TUN, columns NED
0123450
5.4%
7.4%
10.6%
9.6%
6.5%
3.6%
13.5%
9.3%
7.2%
6.5%
4.4%
2.4%
21.5%
4.1%
4.0%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
30.9%
1.2%
0.8%
450–2 10.6%0–3 9.6%1–1 9.3%0–1 7.4%1–2 7.2%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇹🇳TUNTunisia1735effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1735
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Hannibal Mejbri, Aïssa Laïdouni, Youssef Msakni.
🇳🇱NEDNetherlands2000effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2000
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo.