← All fixtures
Group F · Matchday 2 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · Jun 21, 04:00 UTC
🇹🇳 Tunisiavs🇯🇵 Japan
17.1%draw 25.0%57.9%
Expected goals: TUN 0.91 · JPN 2.01
| Source | TUN win | Draw | JPN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.6% | 22.4% | 62.0% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 17.7% | 26.1% | 56.2% |
| Blend (published) | 17.1% | 25.0% | 57.9% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows TUN, columns JPN
0123450
6.9%
9.4%
10.1%
6.8%
3.4%
1.4%
14.5%
11.9%
9.3%
6.2%
3.1%
1.3%
22.5%
5.0%
5.1%
2.8%
1.4%
0.6%
30.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
451–1 11.9%0–2 10.1%0–1 9.4%1–2 9.3%0–0 6.9%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇹🇳TUNTunisia1735effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1735
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Hannibal Mejbri, Aïssa Laïdouni, Youssef Msakni.
🇯🇵JPNJapan1885effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1885
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Takefusa Kubo, Kaoru Mitoma, Wataru Endo.