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Group F · Matchday 2 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · Jun 20, 17:00 UTC
🇳🇱 Netherlandsvs🇸🇪 Sweden
60.7%draw 22.4%17.0%
Expected goals: NED 2.17 · SWE 0.84
| Source | NED win | Draw | SWE win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.0% | 20.4% | 12.6% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 57.9% | 23.2% | 18.8% |
| Blend (published) | 60.7% | 22.4% | 17.0% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows NED, columns SWE
0123450
6.2%
4.6%
2.4%
0.7%
19.0%
10.6%
5.1%
1.4%
210.5%
8.8%
4.5%
1.6%
37.6%
6.4%
2.7%
0.9%
44.1%
3.5%
1.5%
51.8%
1.5%
0.6%
1–1 10.6%2–0 10.5%1–0 9.0%2–1 8.8%3–0 7.6%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇳🇱NEDNetherlands2000effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 2000
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo.
🇸🇪SWESweden1820effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1820
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, Dejan Kulusevski.