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Group F · Matchday 1 · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · Jun 15, 02:00 UTC
🇸🇪 Swedenvs🇹🇳 Tunisia
51.0%draw 26.7%22.3%
Expected goals: SWE 1.69 · TUN 1.08
| Source | SWE win | Draw | TUN win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 25.9% | 23.4% |
| Market (Pinnacle) | 51.1% | 27.1% | 21.8% |
| Blend (published) | 51.0% | 26.7% | 22.3% |
Scoreline probabilities
Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model — rows SWE, columns TUN
0123450
7.4%
5.6%
3.5%
1.3%
19.7%
12.7%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
29.0%
9.7%
5.4%
1.8%
35.1%
5.5%
3.0%
1.1%
42.1%
2.3%
1.3%
50.7%
0.8%
1–1 12.7%2–1 9.7%1–0 9.7%2–0 9.0%0–0 7.4%
Model factors
How each team's effective rating is built
🇸🇪SWESweden1820effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1820
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, Dejan Kulusevski.
🇹🇳TUNTunisia1735effective
- Pre-tournament Elo
- 1735
- In-tournament form (Elo Δ)
- 0.0
- Injury penalty
- 0
No injury concerns — full-strength squad assumed. Key players: Hannibal Mejbri, Aïssa Laïdouni, Youssef Msakni.